Dr. Pradeep Mandapaka received PhD in Civil and Environmental Engineering from the University of Iowa, USA. His doctoral thesis focused on evaluating radar-rainfall observations and understanding the role of rainfall and river network in statistical structure of peak flows. Later he worked as a postdoctoral scientist in the Federal Office of Meteorology and Climatology, Switzerland on short-term forecasting of rainfall using radar-rainfall observations. Since 2012, he has been working as a research fellow in Nanyang Technological University, Singapore. Dr. Mandapaka’s research interests lie in quantitative precipitation estimation and forecasting, spatiotemporal variability of rainfall, remote sensing, and hydrology. Over the last ten years, he has studied rainfall patterns over the Midwest USA, southwest UK, Switzerland and the Maritime Continent.
Presentation Title
Assessing the Effect of Changing Climate on Daily Rainfall Extremes in Jakarta - A Weather Generator Approach
Abstract
Frequency analysis of daily rainfall in Jakarta for the current and future climate conditions is carried out using synthetic rainfall time series generated from Long Ashton research station weather generator (LARS-WG). Twenty three years (1984 – 2006) of daily rainfall data collected at four stations, and the corresponding daily temperature and solar radiation data from the NCEP - CFSR grids are used as input to LARS-WG model to generate 500 years of synthetic rainfall series. The performance of the generator is tested using a series of statistical tests. The synthetic time series of rainfall are also obtained for a future time period (2046 – 2065) using projections from 15 general circulation models for the SRA1B scenario. The intensity-duration-frequency curves for the historical and future time periods are then compared to assess the effect of climate change on rainfall extremes. It was observed that the uncertainty resulting from the use of different climate models is quite significant.